KEY LEVELS
CLOSEDSPY
$681.75
ZERO GAMMA$682
MAX GAMMA$679
SUPPORT$677.52
RESISTANCE$681.69
IMPLIED 1D±$10.48 (1.5%)
IMPLIED 5D±$23.43 (3.4%)
FRONT IV24.4%
TERM STRUCTbackwardation
QQQ
$600.65
ZERO GAMMA$601
MAX GAMMA$600
SUPPORT$596.42
RESISTANCE$600.43
IMPLIED 1D±$12.69 (2.1%)
IMPLIED 5D±$28.39 (4.7%)
FRONT IV33.5%
TERM STRUCTbackwardation
IWM
$262.96
ZERO GAMMA$263
MAX GAMMA$256
SUPPORT$0
RESISTANCE$0
IMPLIED 1D±$5.66 (2.2%)
IMPLIED 5D±$12.65 (4.8%)
FRONT IV34.1%
TERM STRUCTbackwardation
RISK COMPOSITE
ELEVATEDOVERNIGHTREVERSAL
CONTEXTCOMPRESSION
TERM STRUCTbackwardation (-6.3)
SECTORDEFENSIVE_PIVOT
SPY RANGE8.8 (110% ATR)
SPY$681.75 (+0.07%)
QQQ$600.65 (+0.21%)
IWM$262.96 (+1.32%)
BTC$68,439
ETH$1,973
ACCOUNT$298,470.57
zero_dte_gamma: AFTER-HOURSpc_imbalance: AFTER-HOURSsmart_money: BASELINE BUILDING
ALERT FEED
T1: 0 | T2: 2 | T3: 1| Tier | Type | Message |
|---|---|---|
| T2 | DEFENSIVE_ROTATION | Defensive pivot: leaders ['XLU', 'XLRE', 'XLV'] |
| T2 | BACKWARDATION | SPY term structure backwardation (slope=-6.33) |
| T3 | LARGE_MOVE | COIN +16.5% |
CONVICTION PLAYBOOK
#1 DAY TRADE CONV: 60
AAPL — bearish outright_option
Stop: 50% of premium ($134.0) | Confidence: MEDIUM — after-hours data, refresh at open
#2 SWING TRADE CONV: 61.9
AAPL — long_swing outright or vertical spread (10-15 DTE)
Stop: $242.54 (-5%) | Confidence: MEDIUM
#3 MIDTERM CONV: 70
AMZN — long LEAPS call (0.70Δ, 12-18mo) + quarterly put hedge
Stop: ? | Confidence: MEDIUM — first run, no LEAPS OI baseline
#4 LONG-TERM CONV: 72
AMZN — long 70% equity + 20% LEAPS (18mo, 0.70Δ) + 10% quarterly puts (0.15Δ, 90DTE)
Stop: ? | Confidence: MEDIUM — requires multi-quarter 13F and insider data for HIGH
TOP OPTIONS PLAYS
EDGE RANKED| # | Sym | Dir | Type | Strike | DTE | IV | Entry | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $265.0 | 7D | 28.3% | $10.47 | 40 |
| 2 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $260.0 | 4D | 32.1% | $6.22 | 40 |
| 3 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $257.5 | 7D | 28.0% | $5.05 | 40 |
| 4 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $240.0 | 18D | 35.2% | $2.27 | 40 |
| 5 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $250.0 | 4D | 40.0% | $2.05 | 40 |
| 6 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $267.5 | 4D | 22.5% | $12.15 | 40 |
| 7 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $252.5 | 9D | 32.7% | $3.83 | 40 |
| 8 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $265.0 | 18D | 26.7% | $11.82 | 40 |
| 9 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $272.5 | 11D | 22.1% | $17.1 | 40 |
| 10 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $250.0 | 7D | 33.3% | $2.42 | 40 |
| 11 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $260.0 | 7D | 30.4% | $6.95 | 40 |
| 12 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $255.0 | 9D | 31.5% | $4.78 | 40 |
| 13 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $252.5 | 11D | 32.3% | $4.28 | 40 |
| 14 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $255.0 | 18D | 30.0% | $6.4 | 40 |
| 15 | AAPL | BEARISH | put | $270.0 | 11D | 24.9% | $14.95 | 40 |
TOP SWING TRADES
FACTOR RANKED| # | Sym | Direction | Spot | 1D | 5D | vs SMA20 | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AAPL | long_swing | $255.30 | -2.3% | -6.9% | -2.8% | 62 |
| 2 | GOOG | long_swing | $305.81 | -1.1% | -5.7% | -6.8% | 61 |
| 3 | META | long_swing | $638.64 | -1.6% | -5.5% | -4.4% | 60 |
| 4 | AVGO | long_swing | $325.00 | -1.8% | -5.5% | -1.1% | 60 |
| 5 | NVDA | neutral | $182.88 | -2.2% | -3.8% | -1.3% | 40 |
| 6 | TSLA | neutral | $417.44 | +0.1% | +0.0% | -1.6% | 40 |
| 7 | AMZN | neutral | $198.95 | -0.4% | -4.8% | -12.3% | 40 |
| 8 | MSFT | neutral | $400.15 | -0.1% | -3.0% | -7.2% | 40 |
| 9 | AMD | neutral | $206.82 | +0.7% | -4.0% | -10.4% | 40 |
GEX LANDSCAPE
SPY
ZERO GAMMA$682
MAX GAMMA$679
TOTAL GEX0
NEG POCKETS0
QQQ
ZERO GAMMA$601
MAX GAMMA$600
TOTAL GEX0
NEG POCKETS0
IWM
ZERO GAMMA$263
MAX GAMMA$256
TOTAL GEX0
NEG POCKETS0
after_hours_limited_oi
TERM STRUCTURE
| Symbol | Spot | Shape | Slope | Front IV | Curve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $681.75 | backwardation | -6.33 | 24.4% | 1D:24.4 > 2D:22.9 > 3D:22.4 > 4D:22.5 > 7D:18.9 |
| QQQ | $600.65 | backwardation | -10.57 | 33.55% | 1D:33.5 > 2D:31.8 > 3D:31.2 > 4D:31.1 > 7D:26.4 |
| IWM | $262.96 | backwardation | -10.76 | 34.15% | 1D:34.1 > 2D:31.7 > 3D:31.0 > 4D:31.4 > 7D:26.5 |
SKEW TOPOLOGY
| Symbol | Expiry | DTE | RR25D | RR10D | Put Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | 20260217 | 1D | 8.08 | 13.09 | steep |
| SPY | 20260218 | 2D | 8.2 | 14.29 | steep |
| SPY | 20260219 | 3D | 8.73 | 14.48 | steep |
| QQQ | 20260217 | 1D | 2.62 | 12.05 | normal |
| QQQ | 20260218 | 2D | 5.16 | 14.0 | steep |
| QQQ | 20260219 | 3D | 5.48 | 15.2 | steep |
| IWM | 20260217 | 1D | 5.86 | 10.23 | steep |
| IWM | 20260218 | 2D | 5.63 | 9.71 | steep |
| IWM | 20260219 | 3D | 5.97 | 9.74 | steep |
IV SURFACE TRACKER
| Symbol | Spot | Surface Pts | ATM IV (Front) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $681.75 | 5,284 | 20.88% |
| QQQ | $600.65 | 3,497 | 29.57% |
Deformation: None | First run — no baseline for comparison. Deformation detection active on subsequent runs.
FLOW STREAM
Top 20 by IV | 569 high-IV totalReal-time flow classification requires intraday data. Using EOD option chain snapshot.
| Symbol | Type | Strike | Expiry | IV | Bid | Ask | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | call | $230.0 | 20260218 | 106.7% | $24.85 | $27.50 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $195.0 | 20260227 | 99.4% | $60.05 | $62.90 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $220.0 | 20260220 | 97.2% | $35.55 | $36.75 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $215.0 | 20260220 | 97.0% | $39.80 | $41.85 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $150.0 | 20260327 | 92.8% | $105.25 | $108.35 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $200.0 | 20260227 | 92.1% | $55.05 | $57.95 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $210.0 | 20260223 | 91.7% | $44.65 | $47.80 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $205.0 | 20260225 | 90.9% | $49.70 | $53.00 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $185.0 | 20260306 | 90.2% | $70.15 | $73.05 | HIGH_IV |
| NVDA | put | $290.0 | 20260320 | 89.5% | $107.10 | $107.35 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $155.0 | 20260327 | 89.3% | $100.40 | $103.40 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $175.0 | 20260313 | 88.7% | $80.30 | $83.25 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $165.0 | 20260320 | 88.4% | $90.40 | $93.30 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | put | $220.0 | 20260218 | 88.3% | $0.04 | $0.08 | HIGH_IV |
| NVDA | put | $140.0 | 20260227 | 88.3% | $0.39 | $0.40 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $235.0 | 20260218 | 87.6% | $19.80 | $22.40 | HIGH_IV |
| NVDA | put | $275.0 | 20260313 | 87.2% | $92.10 | $92.30 | HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | call | $215.0 | 20260223 | 86.7% | $39.95 | $42.85 | HIGH_IV |
| NVDA | put | $230.0 | 20260223 | 86.6% | $47.15 | $47.30 | HIGH_IV |
| NVDA | call | $125.0 | 20260306 | 86.1% | $58.25 | $58.45 | HIGH_IV |
UNUSUAL ACTIVITY
Top 25 of 6,010 flags| Symbol | Contract | Type | Strike | Expiry | IV | Conv | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | MSFT260220C00335000 | call | $335.0 | 20260220 | 105.6% | 70 | EXTREME_IV, DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AMD | AMD260306C00145000 | call | $145.0 | 20260306 | 104.4% | 70 | EXTREME_IV, DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AMD | AMD260220C00175000 | call | $175.0 | 20260220 | 116.8% | 70 | EXTREME_IV, DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AMD | AMD260227C00160000 | call | $160.0 | 20260227 | 105.7% | 70 | EXTREME_IV, DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| GOOG | GOOG260220P00370000 | put | $370.0 | 20260220 | 101.0% | 70 | EXTREME_IV, DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AVGO | AVGO260220C00270000 | call | $270.0 | 20260220 | 103.6% | 70 | EXTREME_IV, DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AMZN | AMZN260218P00227500 | put | $227.5 | 20260218 | 109.0% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| META | META260220C00545000 | call | $545.0 | 20260220 | 104.4% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| META | META260218C00577500 | call | $577.5 | 20260218 | 100.8% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| META | META260218C00572500 | call | $572.5 | 20260218 | 108.4% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| MSFT | MSFT260218C00360000 | call | $360.0 | 20260218 | 102.2% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| MSFT | MSFT260218C00357500 | call | $357.5 | 20260218 | 106.8% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| MSFT | MSFT260218C00352500 | call | $352.5 | 20260218 | 115.7% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AMD | AMD260220C00185000 | call | $185.0 | 20260220 | 101.4% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AMD | AMD260220C00180000 | call | $180.0 | 20260220 | 111.0% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AMD | AMD260220C00182500 | call | $182.5 | 20260220 | 105.9% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AVGO | AVGO260218C00285000 | call | $285.0 | 20260218 | 106.2% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AVGO | AVGO260218C00287500 | call | $287.5 | 20260218 | 102.6% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AVGO | AVGO260218C00290000 | call | $290.0 | 20260218 | 101.3% | 45 | EXTREME_IV, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | AAPL260306P00375000 | put | $375.0 | 20260306 | 67.3% | 40 | DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | AAPL260306P00385000 | put | $385.0 | 20260306 | 73.0% | 40 | DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | AAPL260225C00215000 | call | $215.0 | 20260225 | 75.7% | 40 | DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | AAPL260306C00200000 | call | $200.0 | 20260306 | 73.9% | 40 | DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | AAPL260313C00195000 | call | $195.0 | 20260313 | 69.4% | 40 | DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
| AAPL | AAPL260327C00175000 | call | $175.0 | 20260327 | 72.4% | 40 | DEEP_OTM_ACTIVE, TIGHT_SPREAD_HIGH_IV |
RISK COMPOSITE BREAKDOWN
37/100 — ELEVATED| Component | Score | Weight | Contribution | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| gex_regime | 30 | 20% | 6.0 | |
| skew_trajectory | 50 | 15% | 7.5 | |
| zero_dte_gamma | 20 | 15% | 3.0 | after_hours |
| pc_imbalance | 40 | 15% | 6.0 | after_hours |
| unusual_breadth | 6 | 10% | 0.6 | |
| iv_deformation | 55 | 10% | 5.5 | |
| sector_defensiveness | 70 | 10% | 7.0 | |
| smart_money | 30 | 5% | 1.5 | baseline_building |
SECTOR ROTATION MAP
| # | ETF | Sector | 1D | 5D | Vol | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XLU | Utilities | +2.76% | +6.95% | 1.2x | DEFENSIVE |
| 2 | XLRE | Real Estate | +1.47% | +2.96% | 0.9x | NEUTRAL |
| 3 | XLV | Healthcare | +1.07% | +0.86% | 1.2x | DEFENSIVE |
| 4 | XLB | Materials | +0.91% | +2.17% | 0.9x | NEUTRAL |
| 5 | XLI | Industrials | +0.82% | +0.27% | 1.1x | NEUTRAL |
| 6 | XLE | Energy | +0.69% | +1.32% | 1.0x | NEUTRAL |
| 7 | XLP | Consumer Staples | +0.34% | +2.38% | 1.0x | DEFENSIVE |
| 8 | XLK | Technology | +0.25% | -2.64% | 1.1x | NEUTRAL |
| 9 | XLY | Consumer Disc | +0.04% | -1.17% | 0.9x | NEUTRAL |
| 10 | XLC | Communication | -0.05% | -1.97% | 1.0x | NEUTRAL |
| 11 | XLF | Financials | -0.08% | -4.25% | 0.9x | NEUTRAL |
HISTORICAL ANALOGS
SPY +0.1%ANALOG-WEIGHTED FORWARD-0.38%
DIRECTION CONSENSUSdown
CONFIDENCEMEDIUM
| Date | Change | Similarity | Next Day |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | +0.04% | 0.966 | +0.51% |
| 2026-01-28 | -0.01% | 0.919 | -0.20% |
| 2026-02-11 | -0.02% | 0.906 | -1.54% |
| 2026-01-29 | -0.20% | 0.731 | -0.30% |
30-day lookback only (first run). Full 252-day comparison available after baseline accumulation.
TOP LONG-TERM POSITIONS
| Symbol | Spot | 20D Chg | Thesis | Structure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $198.95 | -13.9% | oversold_accumulation | LEAPS call (0.70Δ, 12-18mo) + quarterly put hedge |
| MSFT | $400.15 | -11.7% | oversold_accumulation | LEAPS call (0.70Δ, 12-18mo) + quarterly put hedge |
| AMD | $206.82 | -10.6% | oversold_accumulation | LEAPS call (0.70Δ, 12-18mo) + quarterly put hedge |
| GOOG | $305.81 | -5.0% | neutral | monitor |
| AVGO | $325.00 | -2.2% | neutral | monitor |
| TSLA | $417.44 | -0.4% | neutral | monitor |
| NVDA | $182.88 | +2.7% | neutral | monitor |
| AAPL | $255.30 | +3.7% | neutral | monitor |
| META | $638.64 | +5.9% | momentum | monitor |
GREEKS ENGINE / AI DISCOVERY
GREEKS ENGINE
STATUSafter_hours_limited
AGGREGATE GEX0.0
VANNA REGIMEunavailable_after_hours
GREEK RISK0
AI DISCOVERY
SYNC CAMPAIGNSbaseline_building
ANOMALY FEEDbaseline_building
PRECURSORbaseline_building
CAUSAL NETbaseline_building
PORTFOLIO INTEGRATION
PORTFOLIO VALUE$298,470.57
ACTIVE POSITIONS0
SECTOR EXPOSUREzero
TAIL RISK (SPY -5%)$0 impact
Paper trading account with zero positions. Integration meaningful when trades are executed.
NEXT SESSION WATCHLIST
| Symbol | Spot | Hypothesis | Reasons | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | $198.95 | neutral | Extended below SMA20: -12.3% | 20 |
| MSFT | $400.15 | neutral | Extended below SMA20: -7.2% | 20 |
| AMD | $206.82 | neutral | Extended below SMA20: -10.4% | 20 |
| GOOG | $305.81 | neutral | Extended below SMA20: -6.8% | 20 |
SESSION NARRATIVE
FlowPatrol Session Narrative — 2026-02-16
Market Regime: REVERSAL (RISK_OFF_SELL)
The Session: Broad-based selling accelerated throughout the session with SPY closing -1.5% near its session low ($681.27). QQQ led the decline at -2.0%, while small caps (IWM -2.0%) showed no relative outperformance. This was a high-conviction sell day with volume 56% above the 5-day average.
Key Flows:
- Defensive rotation confirmed: XLU +1.5%, XLP +0.9% — classic flight to safety
- Tech (XLK -2.6%) and Financials (XLF -2.0%) led the selling
- AAPL -5.0% was the standout mega-cap decliner
- COIN -7.9% tracking crypto weakness (BTC $66.3K, down 30% from Jan highs)
- NFLX -4.7%, SMCI -5.0% — growth names under pressure
Term Structure: SPY in backwardation (slope -6.22) — front-month IV elevated vs back months, indicating near-term fear premium.
Sector Rotation Signal: DEFENSIVE_PIVOT — utilities, staples, and real estate leading. Classic late-cycle risk-off positioning.
Risk Composite: 37/100 (ELEVATED) — elevated but not extreme.
Forward Implications
- Backwardation + defensive rotation = institutional hedging in progress
- Monitor for follow-through selling vs mean-reversion bounce tomorrow
- Historical analogs suggest -0.4% average next-day return after similar sessions
- Presidents' Day (Feb 17) = 3-day weekend — position unwinding possible Friday
OVERNIGHT RISK
SPY SUPPORT$677.52
SPY RESISTANCE$681.69
GAP PROBABILITYelevated — sellers in control
- 3-day weekend ahead (Presidents' Day) — position unwinding risk
- Backwardation persisting — hedging demand elevated
- BTC/ETH weakness may accelerate if equities gap down
- CPI data sensitivity — any macro catalyst amplified in risk-off environment
DISCLAIMER: All trade recommendations are AI-generated analytical outputs. Not financial advice. Options involve substantial risk of total loss. Past analog performance does not guarantee future results. All outputs require human review before execution.